摘要： 由于云南有发展烟草的地理、气候、资源等自然条件，加上多年来坚持走发展特 色经济之路，烤烟和卷烟成为云南的支柱产业。统计数据显示，来自烟草的税收收入在云南 税收收入中占有相当大的比例。云南国税收入总量的快速增长大多缘于烟草业的贡献。正因 如此，我省的一些学者和业内人士对卷烟的供给和销售等一系列问题进行了研究并且取得了 显著成效 ，但是大多数还是采用定性分析的方法研究问题。本文则采用经济计量学的方法，利用云南 统计年鉴的数据，建立递归联立方程模型来研究我省卷烟的供给问题。
　　关键词：联立方程；云南；卷烟供给
　　Abstract: The flue-cured tobacco and the cigarette have become the pillar indust ry of Yunnan because of its advantageous natural conditions like geographic loca tion, climate and resources, together with its peculiar mode of economic develop ment. Statistics demonstrate that tobacco tax revenue has taken up a great propo rtion in the total tax revenue of the province. The rapid growth of Yunnan’s st ate tax revenue owes mostly to the contribution from tobacco industry. Meanwhile , much has been achieved in the studies of cigarette supply and sale by research ers in Yunnan. However, these researches are generally conducted within the limi ted framework of qualitative analysis. This paper attempts a unique approach to the study of Yunnan’s cigarette supply via the recursive simultaneous equation model from the perspective of econometrics, together with the application of the data from Yunnan Statistics Yearbook.
　　Key words: simultaneous-equation；Yunnan；cigarette supply

　　一、文献综述及……